Demolition Day. Great Depression 2.0? It’s Oz Penguins Fault.

Baltic Dry Index. 1540 -43          Brent Crude 69.47

Spot Gold 3104               US 2 Year Yield 3.71 -0.20  

US Federal Debt. 36.680 trillion!!!

From now on, the pound abroad is worth 14 per cent or so less in terms of other currencies. That doesn't mean, of course, that the Pound here in Britain, in your pocket or purse or in your bank, has been devalued.

Harold Wilson

With the global stock casinos, plus oil and gold, crashing due to the Great Trumpian Error of Tariff Tyranny, which is well covered in mainstream media, there’s little need for my input, except to ask who taught Aussie Penguins how to make electrical machinery?

In a bizarre twist to the escalating U.S. trade war, President Donald Trump has imposed a 10% tariff on goods from two Australian territories inhabited solely by penguins.

The move has sparked confusion and satire across the Pacific, as the targeted region, the Heard and McDonald Islands, is entirely uninhabited and rarely visited by humans.

---- Even more puzzling were figures showing that the U.S. had imported $1.4 million worth of goods from the Heard and McDonald Islands in 2022 — mostly categorized as “electrical machinery.”

Japan stocks extend declines as Trump tariffs roil markets, Nikkei falls over 2%

Updated Fri, Apr 4 2025 10:58 PM EDT

Asia-Pacific markets extended declines on Friday, tracking steep losses on Wall Street after U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs rattled global markets.

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 fell 1.06%.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell 2.07% while the Topix declined 2.69%.

South Korea’s Kospi slipped 1.03% and the small-cap Kosdaq was 0.30% higher after the country’s Constitutional Court upheld the impeachment of President Yoon Suk Yeol, ousting him from office.

The decision now starts a 60-day countdown where a presidential election must be held to select the next president. Prime Minister Han Duck-soo has been reinstated as acting president in the mean time.

Hong Kong and China markets are closed for the Qingming Festival.

On Wednesday, Trump unveiled reciprocal tariff rates that over 180 countries and territories will face, raising the risk of a global trade war.

U.S. futures fell after Trump’s tariffs led to the largest decline in U.S. equities in five years.

Futures tied to the blue-chip index lost 100 points, or 0.3%, after the 30-stock average tumbled more than 1,600 points in the prior session. S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures each shed 0.2%.

Overnight in the U.S., the three major averages plummeted. The S&P 500 slid back into correction territory, dropping 4.84% to 5,396.52. The Dow Jones Industrial Average tumbled 1,679.39 points, or 3.98%, to close at 40,545.93 and the Nasdaq Composite fell 5.97% to end at 16,550.61, logging its biggest decline since March 2020. 

Asia-Pacific markets live: Nikkei 225, Trump tariffs

Dow nosedives 1,600 points, S&P 500 and Nasdaq drop the most since 2020 after Trump’s tariff onslaught

Updated Thu, Apr 3 2025 4:37 PM EDT

Stocks plummeted Thursday, sending the S&P 500 back into correction territory for its biggest one-day loss since 2020, after President Donald Trump unveiled sweeping tariffs, raising the risk of a global trade war that plunges the economy into a recession.

The broad market index dropped 4.84% and settled at 5,396.52, posting its worst day since June 2020. The Dow Jones Industrial Average tumbled 1,679.39 points, or 3.98%, to close at 40,545.93 and mark its worst session since June 2020. The Nasdaq Composite plummeted 5.97% and ended at 16,550.61, registering its biggest decline since March 2020. The slide across equities was broad, with more than 400 of the S&P 500′s constituents posting losses.

Thursday’s moves sent the S&P 500 to its lowest level since before Trump’s election win in November. The benchmark now sits about 12% from its record close touched in February.

Shares of multinational companies tumbled. Nike and Apple dropped 14% and 9%, respectively. Big sellers of imported goods were among the hardest hit. Five Below lost nearly 28%, Dollar Tree tumbled 13% and Gap plunged 20%. Tech shares dropped in an overall risk-off mood, with Nvidia off almost 8% and Tesla down more than 5%.

A baseline tariff rate of 10% on all countries goes into effect April 5. Even bigger duties against countries that levy higher rates on the U.S. will be charged in coming days, according to the administration.

----- JPMorgan economists said a recession was now likely if these new tariff rates are sustained and not negotiated lower.

Stock market today: Live updates, Trump tariffs

Dow futures fall after tariffs push market to biggest losses since 2020: Live updates

Updated Fri, Apr 4 2025 7:42 PM EDT

Dow Jones Industrial Average futures slid Thursday night after President Donald Trump’s tariff plan triggered the biggest slide in U.S. equities in five years.

Futures tied to the blue-chip index lost 77 points, or 0.2%, after the 30-stock average tumbled more than 1,600 points in the prior session. S&P 500 futures lost 0.1%, and Nasdaq 100 futures were marginally lower.

Thursday night’s action follows the worst day since 2020 for each of the three major indexes. The Dow and S&P 500 dropped roughly 4% and 4.8%, respectively, while the technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite plunged nearly 6%.

The S&P 500 fell back into a correction Thursday, down more than 10% from its February all-time high. The small-cap focused Russell 2000 dove more than 6%, the first widely followed measure of U.S. stocks to enter a bear market, or a decline of at least 20% from its last peak.

Thursday’s sell-off hit megacap technology stocks especially hard, with CNBC’s Magnificent Seven index sliding more than 6%. Collectively, the stocks in the “Magnificent Seven,” which led the market higher in both 2023 and 2024, lost more than $1 trillion in market value.

The Nasdaq Composite has led the way lower for stocks this week, falling 4.5% as the tariff plan drove investors to reduce their risk exposure. The S&P 500 and Dow Industrials have slipped 3.3% and 2.5%, respectively, week to date. Both the Nasdaq and S&P 500 are tracking for their worst weekly performances since September 2024 and sixth negative week of the last seven.

Global markets sold off after Trump on Wednesday announced a baseline tariff rate of 10% on imported goods from all countries going into effect April 5. Several nations face far higher levies, according to the White House.

Investors now wonder if countries will be able to strike trade deals with the U.S. to reduce tariff duties. Trump said Thursday he is open to trade negotiations, an about-face from earlier statements by administration officials.

“The Trump administration may be playing a game of chicken with trading partners, but market participants aren’t willing to wait around for the results,” said Michael Arone, SPDR chief investment strategist at State Street Global Advisors. “Investors are selling first and asking questions later.”

Investors on Friday morning will focus on the closely watched jobs report for March. Economists polled by Dow Jones expect nonfarm payrolls to rise by 140,000 jobs and the unemployment rate to hold steady at 4.1%.

Stock market today: Live updates

US dollar pounded amid fears Trump's trade war will plunge the US into recession

3 April 2925

The pound and the euro raced to six-month highs against the dollar yesterday on fears Donald Trump’s trade war will plunge the US into recession.

As panic mounted amid warnings of an economic ‘spiral of doom’, sterling topped $1.32 for the first time since October while the single currency rose above $1.11.

The greenback was also sharply lower against the Japanese yen and Swiss franc and has now fallen more than 6pc against a basket of global currencies in 2025 – its worst start to the year since 1995. It has given up all the gains made since Trump’s election win in November.

‘The blowback of US tariffs on to the US domestic economy leaves the dollar naked,’ warned Chris Turner, global head of markets at banking group ING.

Investors dumping the dollar flocked to the relative safety of government bonds, pushing prices up and yields lower.

The yield on ten-year UK gilts fell towards 4.5pc having touched 4.8pc last week in the wake of Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ Spring Statement.

The equivalent yield on US Treasuries dropped to 4 per cent for the first time since October.

The latest ructions came after the US President slapped a baseline 10 per cent tariff on imports from around the world and added eye-watering top-ups on dozens of trade partners.

While Trump insisted tariffs would ‘make America wealthy again’, analysts warned they could tip the US into recession.

This is how you sabotage the world’s economic engine while claiming to supercharge it,’ said Nigel Green of the global financial advisory Devere Group.

Countries are now drawing up plans for tit-for-tat tariffs as protectionism sweeps the globe. ‘It’s clear countries will think about how to retaliate in a politically astute way,’ said Justin Onuekwusi, chief investment officer at St James’s Place.

‘Significant retaliation could lead to a tariff spiral of doom that could be the growth shock that drags us into recession.’ 

The slump in the dollar and government bond yields suggests investors are more concerned about a downturn in the US economy than the inflationary impact of tariffs pushing up the price of imported goods.

George Brown, an economist at Schroders, said tariffs put the US Federal Reserve, the central bank, ‘between a rock and a hard place’ as it is left to grapple with weaker economic growth and higher inflation.

Chris Iggo, chief investment officer at AXA Investment Managers, said: ‘The US’s more aggressive stance on trade appears to be turning global investor sentiment away from the world’s largest economy.

More

US dollar pounded amid fears Trump's trade war will plunge the US into recession

Trump tariffs to drag global growth down by trillions of dollars

Thursday 03 April 2025 11:47 am

Donald Trump’s tariffs is set to drag the world economy down by trillions of dollars, according to forecasts by leading economists. 

The International Monetary Fund estimates the current global economy is worth more than $115 trillion and it has been predicted to grow by around three per cent, per various forecasts. 

But since Trump announced damaging tariffs reaching as high as 49 per cent, economists have been rapidly downgrading their forecasts. 

Panmure Liberum’s Simon French dropped his prediction for global economic output growth to 2.5 per cent from 3.25 per cent. 

He attributed this lower estimate to the “demand shock” that will shake the world. 

The National Institute of Economic and Social Research said ahead of Trump’s Rose Garden speech that ten per cent tariffs could hold back global output by around two per cent over five years. 

A 0.5 per cent knock to global GDP would equate to around $5 trillion.

Tariffs on different countries have varied as the UK was left relatively unscathed in comparison to the likes of Cambodia and Vietnam. 

China, meanwhile, now faces taxes on its exports to the US of around 54 per cent when earlier tariffs are taken into account. 

Economists have set out to calculate the global average rate of tariffs, with estimates ranging between 18 per cent and 22 per cent. 

ING’s James Knightley said the total value of the tariffs poised to upend the global economy was $600bn. 

There are growing concerns about what ‘Liberation Day’ means for some of the world’s economic powerhouses. 

US economy now “vulnerable” to recession

Oxford Economics’ Ryan Sweet said the US economy is now “dangerously vulnerable” to a recession, a prospect which is likely to devastate major trading partners across Europe and Asia. 

Sweet also suggested the worst could be yet to come, with President Trump claiming his tariffs were “very kind”. 

“Uncertainty hasn’t been materially reduced, as it’s unclear if these tariffs are a cap, if they could move even higher or how long they will be in place.”

Chatham House researcher Max Yoeli suggested an all-out global trade war had now begun.

“Internationally, it is likely today’s measures will accelerate US trade partners’ diversifying their relationships and reducing reliance on the US,” he said.

“Once the first salvos are fired in a trade war, it is difficult to predict where it will end, and this uncertainty poses vexing challenges for businesses and governments alike.” 

Trump tariffs to drag global growth down by trillions of dollars

Pharma tariff relief likely short-lived with sector-specific duties on the horizon

Published Thu, Apr 3 2025 6:25 AM EDT

Pharmaceutical companies breathed a sigh of relief Wednesday after U.S. President Donald Trump revealed that they would not be subject to reciprocal tariffs — but that reprieve could prove fleeting as the White House moves ahead with plans for the sector.

The Trump administration is considering launching a so-called 232 investigation into pharmaceuticals, among other industries, which could lead to import duties under the Trade Expansion Act.

“The pharmaceutical companies are going to come roaring back, they are coming roaring back, they are all coming back to our country because if they don’t they got a big tax to pay. And if they do, I’ll be very happy,” Trump said during his “Liberation Day” tariff announcement.

In a national emergency declaration accompanying the tariff plan, the White House cited the “particularly acute” need to reinforce domestic manufacturing across sectors such as pharmaceuticals, autos and shipbuilding.

Health care stocks opened slightly higher Thursday, but the Stoxx Healthcare index then dipped 0.4% by 11:00 a.m. London time, extending losses from the previous session as investors braced for more uncertainty ahead.

Switzerland’s Roche led declines, shedding 2.4%, while Wegovy-maker Novo fell 0.7%. Other regional players including Novartis, Bavarian Nordic, AstraZeneca ticked slightly higher.

The pharma industry’s hopes of a sector-wide tariff carve-out faded after Trump last week confirmed that an announcement would come soon, but drugmakers have since been lobbying the administration for a phased approach to allow companies time to relocate their manufacturing Stateside. 

“A whispered potential for a phase-in approach, if it materializes, could dampen immediate shocks across the industry,” Citi said in a note Thursday.

Nevertheless, even with a delayed approach, the complex nature of pharmaceutical supply chains mean that “larger-scale shifts are on a multi-year timeline,” making any relief potentially short lived.

Novo Nordisk declined to comment on the tariff developments on Thursday, but chairman Helge Lund told CNBC last week that the company was not speculating on any levy announcements and was instead focused on remaining “flexible.”

More

Pharma tariff relief likely short-lived as sector-specific duties on the horizon

Trump Slaps 10% Tariffs on Remote Penguin-Inhabited Islands

3 April 2025

And no - it's not a late April First.

In a bizarre twist to the escalating U.S. trade war, President Donald Trump has imposed a 10% tariff on goods from two Australian territories inhabited solely by penguins.

The move has sparked confusion and satire across the Pacific, as the targeted region, the Heard and McDonald Islands, is entirely uninhabited and rarely visited by humans.

The islands, located in the Southern Ocean between Antarctica and Australia, are considered among the most isolated places on Earth.

Covered in glaciers and home to vast colonies of penguins and seals, the volcanic islands have not seen a human visitor in nearly a decade. Despite this, they appeared on an official White House list of “countries” facing new U.S. import tariffs, as reported by Digi24.

Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese commented dryly, “Nowhere on Earth is safe,” after news broke that even this icy wilderness had been swept up in Washington’s sweeping protectionist campaign.

The Heard and McDonald Islands are administered by Australia as external territories, along with other sparsely populated or uninhabited regions like the Cocos (Keeling) Islands, Christmas Island, and Norfolk Island — all of which were listed separately in the White House tariff announcement.

One of the most baffling entries on the list was Norfolk Island, a tiny Pacific outpost with just over 2,000 residents, which received a 29% tariff — notably higher than mainland Australia’s 10%.

However, local officials disputed the data that underpinned the tariffs. George Plant, administrator of Norfolk Island, said, “There are no known exports from Norfolk Island to the United States.”

Even more puzzling were figures showing that the U.S. had imported $1.4 million worth of goods from the Heard and McDonald Islands in 2022 — mostly categorized as “electrical machinery.” No such production facilities or settlements exist there, raising questions about the accuracy of export data or possible mislabeling.

More

Trump Slaps 10% Tariffs on Remote Penguin-Inhabited Islands

In other news, a fatal EV fire in Madrid.

Deaths in Garage Fire

by Hugh MacArthur • April 3, 2025

Two firefighters have died and 14 injured in a garage fire in Madrid yesterday. Of those injured, only one was seriously injured with the rest all suffering from mild toxic inhalation.

According to emergency-services sources, the fire was probably caused by an electric car that went up in flames within the garage on Calle Lilos the barrio of Las Retamas.

As for the deaths, it appears that one of the deceased had been caught out by an explosion that affected several parked cars. The second death was caused by severe, toxic-fumes inhalation leading to the victim succumbing on his way to Getafe University Hospital.

The explosions, flames and toxic smoke necessitated the evacuation of the building above the garage and those within the immediate vecinity.

Deaths in Garage Fire - Costa Tropical Gazette News

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.

‘Absolutely nothing good’ coming out of Trump’s tariff announcement: Analysts react to latest U.S. levies

Published Thu, Apr 3 2025 2:17 AM EDT

U.S. President Donald Trump on Wednesday laid out the “reciprocal tariff” rates that more than 180 countries and territories will face under his sweeping new trade policy.

The announcement sent stocks tumbling and prompted investors to seek refuge in assets perceived to be safe.

Analysts generally had a pessimistic take on the announcement, with some even predicting an increased risk of a recession for the U.S.

Here is a compilation of reactions from experts and analysts:

Tai Hui, APAC Chief Market Strategist, J.P. Morgan Asset Management

“Today’s announcement could potentially raise U.S. average tariff rates to levels not seen since the early 20th century. If these tariffs persist, they could materially impact inflation, as U.S. manufacturing struggles to ramp up capacity and supply chains pass on costs to consumers. For instance, advanced semiconductor manufacturers in Taiwan may not absorb tariff costs without viable substitutes.

“The scale of these tariffs raises concerns about growth risks. U.S. consumers may cut back on spending due to pricier imports, and businesses might delay capital expenditures amid uncertainty about the tariffs’ full impact and potential retaliation from trade partners.”

David Rosenberg, President and founder of Rosenberg Research

“There are no winners in a global trade war. And when people have to realize, when you hear this clap trap about how consumers in United States are not going to bear any brunt. It’s all going to be the foreign producer. I roll my eyes whenever I hear that, because it shows a zero understanding of how trade works, because it is the importing business that pays the tariff, not the exporting country.

And a lot of that will get transmitted into the consumer, so we’re in for several months of a very significant price shock for the American household sector.”

Anthony Raza, Head of Multi-Asset Strategy, UOB Asset Management

“They’ve come up with the most extreme numbers that we can’t even comprehend. How they’re coming up with these? And then in terms of timing, I think we were hopeful that maybe this would be something that was rolled out over the course of a year, that would allow like time for negotiations or whatever. But it does seem like the timing is much more immediate and is, again, worse than our worst-case type scenario in terms of flexibility.”

David Roche, Strategist, Quantum Strategy

”These tariffs are not transitional. They are core to President Trump’s beliefs. They mark the shift from globalisation to isolationist, nationalist policies – and not just for economics. The process will last several years and be felt for decades. There will be spillovers into multiple policy domains such as geopolitics.

Right now, expect retaliation, not negotiation by the EU (targeting U.S. services) and China (focusing on U.S. strategic and business interests). The Rose Garden tariffs will cement the bear market. They will cause global stagflation as well as U.S. and EU recession.”

More

'Absolutely nothing good' coming out of Trump's tariff announcement: Analysts react to latest U.S. levies

Fed's Kugler says inflation progress may have stalled, backs steady rate policy

April 2, 2025

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Progress towards the U.S. central bank's 2% inflation target has slowed recently and may have stalled, Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler said on Wednesday, a reason to keep interest rates where they are.

"Recent disinflation has been slower, and the latest data indicate that progress toward the Federal Open Market Committee's 2% goal may have stalled," Kugler said in remarks prepared for delivery for an event at Princeton University.

In addition to that lack of progress, Kugler noted the recent rise in inflation expectations, and the "upside risks associated with announced and prospective policy changes," such as the import tariffs planned by the Trump administration.

Kugler said she would support keeping the Fed's benchmark policy rate in the current 4.25%-4.50% range "for as long as these upside risks to inflation continue," given ongoing economic growth and stable employment.

The job market does seem to be moderating, she said, but does not appear to be weakening significantly.

Kugler focused much of her speech on the role inflation expectations play in price-setting behavior among firms and wage demands in households.

The fact that inflation was recently so high, she said, meant expectations may be more sensitive to further price moves.

Measures of expectations have risen lately, Kugler said, something the Fed needs to watch. She said, however, that she took "some comfort from the much smaller increases in longer-term expectations" seen in some surveys and market-based measures.

The Fed held interest rates steady at its March 18-19 meeting, and central bank officials have said they want more clarity on the impact of President Donald Trump's policies. Fed policymakers' projections for the year, however, showed they expect higher inflation and slower growth than they did in December before the sweep of Trump's tariff plans became clearer.

Fed's Kugler says inflation progress may have stalled, backs steady rate policy

Covid-19 Corner

This section will continue only occasionally when something of interest occurs.

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.

Sunny weather sees new record for British solar power

2 April 2025

Sunny conditions helped solar power generate a new record high of more than 12.5 gigawatts of electricity on Tuesday, the system operator has said.

The record 12.569GW of power from solar – equivalent to around four new nuclear power plants – was generated between 12:30 and 1pm on Tuesday.

And with the sunny conditions continuing, there is potential for the new record to be broken again later this week.

A spokesperson for the National Energy System Operator (Neso) said it was “great to see solar being able to play an ever increasing role in our energy mix”.

The spokesperson said: “Over the last six years we’ve been working to reconfigure the network to enable more and more clean power sources to operate as the use of coal has been phased out.

“Today’s new solar record is testament to the work our teams have been leading to deliver our 2025 ambition for zero carbon operation.”

Responding to the new record, Jess Ralston, analyst at the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU) think tank said increased solar power generation made Britain less reliant on gas, the cost of which soared following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

“Every new solar panel installed in the UK makes us less dependent on gas imports, which is good for our energy independence as well as for stabilising energy bills given the sun offers up its power for free.

“As we install more solar and build more wind turbines, our reliance on gas will fall, as will our vulnerability to the likes of Putin.

“Volatile gas prices cost us an extra £140 billion since the crisis began so there are benefits for tax payers and bill payers alike,” she said.

Sunny weather sees new record for British solar power

Next, the world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.

World Debt Clocks (usdebtclock.org)

Another weekend and the first weekend of the newly started Trump global trade war. How long it lasts and how it ends, no one knows. Who will be the winners, if any, and who will be the losers is an open question, although US consumers will be among the losers by paying higher prices for imported goods.  Have a great weekend everyone.

The ambition of the present Labour government is that every worker in the country will have a greater than average income.

Harold Wilson

Liberation Day Plus 1. Trump’s Trade War On The World.

 Baltic Dry Index. 1583 -04          Brent Crude 73.22

Spot Gold 3146               US 2 Year Yield 3.91 +0.04  

US Federal Debt. 36.676 trillion!!!

To be an enemy of America can be dangerous, but to be a friend is fatal

Henry A. Kissinger

Trump’s America, (330 million,) starts a trade war on the rest of the world, (8 billion,) and expects to win!

Well maybe, but that’s not the way to bet.

The Great Depression 2.0 now kicks off.

That great deafening sucking sound we hear, global wealth rapidly disappearing from the global stock casinos.

The velocity of money crashes in a few weeks.

Trump imposes 10 percent global tariffs; higher rate for ‘worst offenders’

by Brett Samuels and Alex Gangitano - 04/02/25 4:36 PM ET

President Trump on Wednesday announced a baseline 10 percent tariff on imports from all foreign countries, as well as higher tariff rates for dozens of nations that the White House deemed the “worst offenders” when it came to trade barriers.

The 10 percent tariff will go into effect on Friday. About 60 countries facing a higher reciprocal tariff will see those rates go into effect on April 9 at 12:01 a.m. Trump also announced a 25 percent tariff on all foreign-made automobiles that will take effect at 12:01 a.m. April 3.

Among the countries being targeted with reciprocal tariffs are China, Vietnam, Taiwan, Japan, India, South Korea, Thailand, Switzerland, Indonesia, Malaysia, Cambodia and the European Union.

Trump said those reciprocal tariffs will be calculated by combining the rate of tariffs and non-monetary barriers like currency manipulation, then divided in half.

“The tariffs will be not a full reciprocal. I could have done that, I guess. But it would have been tough for a lot of countries,” Trump said.

The higher reciprocal tariffs included 35 percent on China, 20 percent on the European Union, 46 percent on Vietnam, 32 percent on Taiwan, 24 percent on Japan.

“This is one of the most important days, in my opinion, in America’s history,” Trump said. “It’s our declaration of economic independence.” 

Other countries with high tariffs include 26 percent on India, 21 percent on Switzerland, 32 percent on Indonesia, 24 percent on Malaysia, 49 percent on Cambodia and 10 percent on the United Kingdom.

The president predicted that his massive tariffs will receive criticism, but argued that he also heard complaints about his handling of China and the trade agreement he struck with Mexico and Canada in his first term.

“In the coming days, there will be complaints from the globalists, and the outsourcers, special interests, and fake news,” Trump said. “But, never forget that every prediction our opponents made about trade for the last 30 years has been proven totally wrong.”

More

Trump imposes 10 percent global tariffs; higher rate for ‘worst offenders’

See Trump’s list: More than 180 countries and territories facing reciprocal tariffs

Published Wed, Apr 2 2025 6:13 PM EDT

President Donald Trump on Wednesday laid out the U.S. “reciprocal tariff” rates that more than 180 countries and territories, including European Union members, will face under his sweeping new trade policy.

Trump and the White House shared a series of charts on social media detailing the tariff rates they say other countries impose on the U.S. Those purported rates include the countries’ “Currency Manipulation and Trade Barriers.”

An adjacent column shows the new U.S. tariff rates on each country, as well as the European Union.

More

Trump's list of countries facing reciprocal tariffs

Asia-Pacific markets slide after Trump’s tariff announcement rocks sentiment

Updated Thu, Apr 3 2025 12:22 AM EDT

Asia-Pacific markets plunged on Thursday, after U.S. President Donald Trump imposed hefty reciprocal tariffs on over 180 countries and territories - several of which are in the region.

In charts posted on social media, the White House showed the effective tariff rates they claim other countries impose on American goods, including by “currency manipulation and trade barriers.”

The White House told CNBC’s Eamon Javers on Wednesday that the new reciprocal rate on China will be added to existing tariffs totaling 20%, meaning the true tariff rate on Beijing under this Trump term is 54%.

Meanwhile, goods from India, South Korea and Australia face tariffs of 26%, 25% and 10%, respectively.

Chris Kushlis, chief emerging markets Macro Strategist at T. Rowe Price says the fresh tariffs “represent a significant increase in tariffs on Asian exports, and arguably more than anticipated by the market.”

The U.S. accounts for approximately 15% of exports from the region, meaning that tariff increases ranging between 20% and 35% “would pose a meaningful headwind to growth this year, especially for the more open trade-oriented economies,” he noted.

“Many Asia economies have a relatively high proportion of their export value added that ends up in the US, so the broad application of tariffs globally will hinder effects to redirect trade,” Kushlis added.

What is interesting is that China “which has the biggest trade deficit with the U.S. does not have the largest reciprocal tariffs,” said Stephen Dover, chief market strategist and head of Franklin Templeton Institute at Franklin Templeton.

Instead, he highlighted that Southeast Asia — which has benefitted from past tariffs on China — has “some of the highest reciprocal tariffs.”

Japanese markets led losses in Asia. The benchmark Nikkei 225 was down 3.10%, paring losses of over 4% at the open, while the broader Topix index was down 3.48%.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index fell 1.58% while mainland China’s CSI 300 was down 0.71%.

Over in South Korea, the Kospi index fell 0.94%, paring losses from over 3%, while the small-cap Kosdaq was down 0.21%.

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 was down 0.89% in its last hour of trade.

India’s benchmark Nifty 50 opened 0.34% lower while the broader BSE Sensex declined 0.46%.

Spot gold hit a record high and was trading at $3,148.84 per ounce as at 11.58 a.m. Singapore time, as investors flocked to the precious metal.

Looking ahead, Franklin Templeton’s Dover said that the tariffs “do not work if prices do not increase.”

“The average American family may pay up to an estimated $4,200 more per year because of today’s tariffs (assuming an average 20% tariff rate on imports),” he wrote in a Thursday note.

What this means is that the tariffs, will likely slow household and business spending, thereby increasing the “risk of U.S. growth and earnings disappointments in 2025,” Dover added.

U.S. futures cratered as Trump’s sweeping tariffs of at least 10% and even higher for some countries, raised the risks of a global trade war that would adversely affect the already slowing U.S. economy.

Overnight stateside, stocks climbed in yet another volatile session.

The S&P 500 advanced 0.67% to close at 5,670.97, while the Nasdaq Composite added 0.87% and ended at 17,601.05.

The 30-stock Dow Jones Industrial Average added 235.36 points, or 0.56%, and settled at 42,225.32.

Shares of Tesla climbed 5.3%, rising on news that President Trump has signaled to his cabinet that Elon Musk will be stepping back

Asia markets live: Stocks fall

Dow futures tumble over 800 points on fear Trump’s tariffs will spark trade war: Live updates

Updated Thu, Apr 3 2025 12:20 AM EDT

U.S. stock futures cratered as President Donald Trump unveiled sweeping tariffs of at least 10% and even higher for some countries, raising the risks of a global trade war that hits the already sputtering U.S. economy.

Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 828 points, or 1.95%. S&P 500 futures dropped 2.68% while Nasdaq-100 futures lost 3.19%.

Shares of multinational companies tumbled in extended trading. Nike and Apple each dropped about 7%. Shares of big sellers of imported goods were among the hardest hit. Five Below lost 14%, Dollar Tree tumbled 11% and Gap plunged 8.5%. Tech shares dropped in an overall risk-off mood, with Nvidia off 5% and Tesla down 7%.

The White House unveiled a baseline tariff rate of 10% on all countries that goes into effect April 5. Even bigger duties against countries that levy higher rates on the U.S. will be charged in coming days, according to the administration.

“We will charge them approximately half of what they are and have been charging us,” said Trump in a press conference from the White House Rose Garden. “So, the tariffs will be not a full reciprocal.”

That halved figure includes “the combined rate of all their tariffs, non-monetary barriers and other forms of cheating,” he said.

What’s likely spooking traders is that these rates will end up being much higher than expected for many nations. For example, the effective tariff rate for China will now be 54% when accounting for the new reciprocal rate and duties already levied against the country, the White House clarified to CNBC. Traders had hoped a 10%-to-20% rate would be a universally applied cap, not a minimum starting point.

“What was delivered was as haphazard as anything this administration has done to date, and the level of complication on top of the ultimate level of new tariffs is worse than had been feared and not yet priced into the market,” said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at B. Riley Wealth Management.

The S&P 500 rose for a third day Wednesday on hopes Trump would not announce a severe tariff plan on the risk it would tip the economy into a slowdown and raise already sticky inflation.

The benchmark has been hit hard since late February with it falling into correction territory — or 10% down from its record — because of the heightened uncertainty caused by Trump’s ongoing tariff announcements. This uncertainty has started to show up in some sluggish economic data, which further pressured stocks by heightening recession fears.

“If he would have come in with just the 10%, I think the markets would probably be up quite a bit right now,” said Larry Tentarelli, chief technical strategist at the Blue Chip Trend Report. “But because the tariffs came in bigger than many expected, I think what that does is it creates more downside volatility right now.”

Extrapolating the losses in after hours Wednesday trading, the S&P 500 is on course to fall back into a correction during regular hours trading Thursday

Stock market today: live updates Trump tariffs

US will boom: Trump rejects stagflation fears as experts warn of economic crisis

2 April 2025

United States President Donald Trump on Wednesday brushed aside concerns about stagflation, insisting that America's economy is on the verge of a major resurgence.

When asked whether he was worried about stagflation — a combination of stagnant economic growth, high inflation, and rising unemployment — Trump responded, "I haven't heard that term in years. I don't know anything about it. This country is going to be more successful than it ever was. It is going to boom. We're going to have a boomtown. We're going to boom".

The President's remarks came at a time when economic analysts have raised alarms about the risk of stagflation — a scenario where economic growth slows while inflation remains high and unemployment rises.

Historically, stagflation has been one of the most difficult economic challenges to manage, as it combines two typically opposing economic forces: inflation and stagnation. The term gained prominence in the 1970s when the US struggled with surging oil prices, economic stagnation, and high joblessness, leading to a prolonged period of economic distress.

Despite concerns from experts, Trump remained confident that the US economy would thrive, calling his ongoing term a 'golden age' for America. He also vowed to bring manufacturing and production back to the United States, emphasising economic self-sufficiency.

"We are going to bring manufacturing and products back to America. For instance, we need pharmaceuticals for our country — we don't want to buy them from other countries. Similarly, we have our own lumber, we have our own energy. We don't need energy from Canada, we don't need lumber from Canada. In fact, we don't need anything from Canada. I believe this will be a golden age for America," Trump said during a press gaggle aboard his Air Force One flight.

With the impending rollout of Trump's reciprocal tariffs, economists are warning of a looming stagflation crisis in the United States.

Experts cite Trump's economic policies — tariffs, mass public sector layoffs, and government program shutdowns — as key drivers of these concerns. They said warning signs are already emerging, including declining consumer sentiment, falling stock markets, and persistent inflation.

US will boom: Trump rejects stagflation fears as experts warn of economic crisis

EU’s instant retaliation against Trump’s tariffs set to target US tech and banking

1 April 2025

BRUSSELS – The European Union is poised with “a strong plan to retaliate” against Donald Trump’s plan to impose sweeping tariffs on US imports from around the world. 

The new tariffs are expected to mark a massive escalation in his global trade war, marking what he is describing as America’s “liberation day”, with speculation that he could slap a universal 20 per cent levy on all imports.

However, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has promised instant retaliation, warnuing that Brussels had “a lot of cards” to fight the battle ahead.

EU officials have already drawn up their target list of American sectors for their counterstrike, taking aim at US banking services and big tech.

“We will approach these negotiations from a position of strength,” Von der Leyen told the European Parliament on Tuesday. “Europe holds a lot of cards. From trade to technology to the size of our market. But this strength is also built on our readiness to take firm countermeasures. All instruments are on the table.”

Trump has already slapped 25 per cent tariffs on imports of steel and aluminium, as well as cars and car parts.

His so-called “reciprocal” tariffs are aimed at punishing not only existing EU levies but what the US administration sees as non-tariff barriers such as EU tech regulations, tax rates, and health and safety standards for farm products.

While the UK is unlikely to retaliate – after the Office for Budget Responsibility warned reciprocal measures would hit GDP and wipe out Rachel Reeves’s £9.9bn fiscal headroom by 2026 – the EU stands ready.

Von der Leyen said that, unlike the US, the EU was ready to offset lost American trade with deeper ties with other markets.

“Our hallmark is not only that we are the biggest market in the world but that we are reliable and predictable,” she said. “We have the power to push back.”

Von der Leyen has strong backing in most EU capitals, with French President Emmanuel Macron calling for Europe to be prepared for a “world of tariff wars” and European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde warning that leaders need to “stand ready for anything”.

“We do not necessarily want to retaliate, but we have a strong plan to retaliate if necessary,” Von der Leyen said.

The EU – which has an equivalent economic power to the US – retaliated within hours against Trump’s 25 per cent tariffs on steel and aluminium, targeting up to €26bn of American goods. But the bloc has so far held back on the 25 per cent tariffs on cars.

EU officials note that while the EU has a trade surplus in goods with the US, including cars, pharmaceuticals and food, the US also has a trade surplus in services, from finance to technology.

Retaliation could involve digital levies and stricter rules on Silicon Valley, as well as restricting banking and insurance access to the EU for Wall Street giants.

“Europe is far from powerless. Its long-standing ties with the US have played a crucial role in shaping America’s economic success and geopolitical dominance,” said Tobias Gehrke, a senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations.

“With strategic influence across trade, finance, technology, and digital markets, Europe holds powerful cards that could counter Trump’s coercive tactics,” he added.

EU’s instant retaliation against Trump’s tariffs set to target US tech and banking

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.

US inflation swaps price in big short-term tariff impact, flag recession risk

April 1, 2025

NEW YORK (Reuters) -Investors in financial derivatives called U.S. inflation swaps are betting that President Donald Trump's tariffs will have a hefty short-term impact on consumer prices that will recede in the next few years as recession concerns escalate.

Inflation swaps are used to hedge against a rise in prices. They have two participants: the receiver and payer: the receiver seeks protection against rising inflation, while the payer, typically a bank, assumes the risk tied to inflation. 

Specifically, the receiver agrees to exchange with the payer a fixed amount for floating payments tied to the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for a given notional amount and period of time.    

These instruments are also used by market participants to speculate on the path of inflation and more broadly to infer inflation expectations. U.S. inflation swaps cleared by LCH have amounted to $1.3 trillion so far this year, having grown sharply since Trump's January 20 inauguration in the face of rising tariff uncertainty.

Trump is expected to announce on Wednesday a wide range of reciprocal tariffs against U.S. trading partners who levy tariffs against imports from the United States. While there are no specific details on which products will be affected, analysts expect that tariffs will be imposed on cars, semiconductors, lumber, and pharmaceuticals. 

The U.S. president, however, said last week, he was open to negotiating deals with countries seeking to avoid U.S. tariffs.

Ahead of this tariff announcement, U.S. one-year inflation swaps surged to a two-year high of 3.07% on Friday, and were last at 2.99% on Tuesday. This move means that investors believe headline CPI will average about 3% over the next 12 months, higher than the 2.8% year-on-year CPI reading for February, the latest available data.

U.S. two-year swaps, on the other hand, were at 2.84%, while those on three-year maturities stood at 2.42%, LSEG data showed, suggesting the market thinks inflation will come down after that initial spike.

"There's an initial, one-time increase in inflation at the price level because firms have to raise prices to offset the impact of tariffs," said Ryan Swift, chief bond strategist at BCA Research.

"But over the medium term, tariffs would actually slow manufacturing activity, which means less demand ... and inflation will end up lower than what it would have been otherwise just because the economy is hurt. It reflects recession expectations."

Recession is not the base case for many banks, although that likelihood has increased.

Goldman Sachs, in its latest research note, has raised its 12-month recession probability to 35% from 20%, reflecting its lower growth forecast for the fourth quarter, declining consumer confidence, and "statements from White House officials indicating willingness to tolerate economic pain."

J.P. Morgan estimates a 40% chance of a recession.

BREAKEVEN INFLATION

There's another measure of price increase expectations, however, called breakeven inflation, derived from the Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities market. Breakeven inflation and inflation swaps are similar, although the former has a liquidity premium attached to it due to supply and demand factors in TIPS trading.

Some analysts prefer to look at inflation swaps to measure expectations because they are not tied to liquidity issues.

Breakevens showed a similar pattern with U.S. inflation swaps: a big tariff impact in one-year breakevens of 3.4% on Tuesday, sliding in the next few years.

Some analysts pointed out that lower inflation expectations after that initial tariff-related rise seemed misplaced.

"If growth continues to chug along even if it is at a more subdued pace and you get this big supply shock coming from tariffs, the inflation impact in the near term will be larger than what the market is currently priced for and that could last longer," said Phoebe White, head of U.S. inflation market strategy at J.P. Morgan.

More

US inflation swaps price in big short-term tariff impact, flag recession risk

Trump’s car tariffs to put 25,000 UK jobs at risk, IPPR say

Wednesday 02 April 2025 6:00 am  

President Donald Trump’s 25 per cent tariffs on all car imports to the US could destroy thousands of UK jobs, the Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR) have suggested. 

The think tank estimates that around 25,000 jobs will come under threat as a result of Trump’s tariffs due to come into effect on Wednesday. 

The most exposed brands include Jaguar Land Rover and Mini, the IPPR said, as respective factories in Solihull and Oxford would be at risk of closing down. 

IPPR’s calculation assumes that car firms move abroad to avoid tariffs. 

UK vehicle exports to America – its largest trading partner – are worth some £9bn. 

The think tank estimated that there were a total of 263,000 workers in transport manufacturing. It said exports of non-electric cars fell by 24 per cent between 2018 and 2022. 

Pranesh Narayanan, a research fellow at IPPR, said the government’s growth plans were “at jeopardy”. 

“Trump’s tariffs have huge potential to completely destabilise the UK car manufacturing industry, affecting tens of thousands of jobs,” Narayanan said. 

Car manufacturing is already under intense strains as the sector saw a 11.6 per cent decline in output in February, according to the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT). 

The UK is gearing up for much worse as Trump prepares to announce extra tariffs on Wednesday in what he has dubbed ‘Liberation Day’. 

Prime Minister Keir Starmer is hoping to clinch a trade deal with the US but there is no indication the two countries will come to an agreement in the short term. 

Downing Street conceded that Trump is likely to include the UK in sweeping tariffs on goods on Wednesday in an event the president has labelled as “Liberation Day”.

The IPPR is taking an optimistic view on Trump’s targeted taxes on car imports as it urged Chancellor Rachel Reeves to subsidise businesses involved in green transport manufacturing and reduce trade barriers with the European Union. 

“If the government uses the upcoming industrial strategy to drive investment in [green transport] sectors, this could be the spark that leads to thousands of new consumers to start buying British and buying green.”

Trump’s car tariffs to put 25,000 UK jobs at risk, IPPR say

Covid-19 Corner

This section will continue only occasionally when something of interest occurs.

A new Covid variant is on the rise. What to know about LP.8.1

2 April 2025

More than five years since COVID was declared a pandemic, we’re still facing the regular emergence of new variants of the virus, SARS-CoV-2.

The latest variant on the rise is LP.8.1. It’s increasing in Australia, making up close to one in five COVID cases in New South Wales. Elsewhere it’s become even more dominant, comprising at least three in five cases in the United Kingdom, for example.

So what is LP.8.1? And is it cause for concern? Let’s look at what we know so far.

An offshoot of Omicron

LP.8.1 was first detected in July 2024. It’s a descendant of Omicron, specifically of KP.1.1.3, which is descended from JN.1, a subvariant that caused large waves of COVID infections around the world in late 2023 and early 2024.

The World Health Organization (WHO) designated LP.8.1 as a variant under monitoring in January. This was in response to its significant growth globally, and reflects that it has genetic changes which may allow the virus to spread more easily and pose a greater risk to human health.

Specifically, LP.8.1 has mutations at six locations in its spike protein, the protein which allows SARS-CoV-2 to attach to our cells. One of these mutations, V445R, is thought to allow this variant to spread more easily relative to other circulating variants. V445R has been shown to increase binding to human lung cells in laboratory studies.

Notably, the symptoms of LP.8.1 don’t appear to be any more severe than other circulating strains. And the WHO has evaluated the additional public health risk LP.8.1 poses at a global level to be low. What’s more, LP.8.1 remains a variant under monitoring, rather than a variant of interest or a variant of concern.

In other words, these changes to the virus with LP.8.1 are small, and not likely to make a big difference to the trajectory of the pandemic.

That doesn’t mean cases won’t rise

COVID as a whole is still a major national and international health concern. So far this year there have been close to 45,000 new cases recorded in Australia, while around 260 people are currently in hospital with the virus.

Because many people are no longer testing or reporting their infections, the real number of cases is probably far higher.

In Australia, LP.8.1 has become the third most dominant strain in NSW (behind XEC and KP.3).

It has been growing over the past couple of months and this trend looks set to continue.

More

A new Covid variant is on the rise. What to know about LP.8.1

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.

Bellezza process could replace copper with graphene in ICs

Posted on 1st April 2025 | Modified on 1st April 2025

Anthony Paul Bellezza (pictured) is the inventor of a 2D graphene fusion process being used for CMOS chip assembly processes that fuses interconnects at temperatures within the thermal budget of the chip below 400°C, and can work at temperatures as low as 200°C.

“The interconnect electrical resistance is almost undetectable – this will allow faster computers to be produced that operate at lower temperatures as graphene is also an excellent disperser of heat produced by the chips,” says Bellezza, “my patent process will extend Moore’s Law and will in time eliminate copper circuits that will be replaced by environmentally safer graphene as the copper circuit size is now at the limit. Thinner, copper micro circuits increase electrical resistance.

Scientist and engineers have been trying to use graphene in semiconductor circuits for 20 years. The biggest problem has been that graphene cannot be soldered and does not bond well at low temperatures with any other metals used in circuits. It is the world’s best diffusion barrier that prevents oxidation and metal migration in circuits.

“My fusion process is the only process in the world that can use 2D Graphene for circuit interconnects at low temperature assembling of CMOS chips,” says Bellezza, “this is done by changing the crystalline structure of the substrate metal which is iron/nickel plating. The substrate is prepared by physically rolling or cryogenically treating for only seconds to form Martensite crystals that will absorb carbon graphene when heated. This type of process has been used for several hundred years in heat-treating carbonization of steel, but I’m the first in the world to use this heat-treating process for microelectronic circuits.”

The fusion created is a true metallurgical union as the graphene becomes an alloy fused to the substrate and CMOS Chips. The interface has very low electrical resistance that increases the speed of the circuit. The process can be used for all circuits in semiconductors. The carbon grraphene properties are now pivotal and the best for fusing

“I have researched the use of this type of fused interconnects in my other patents found on my Web Site,” says Bellezza, “the solderless thermoelectric generator was the start of this research in 2007 now patent US10,756,248 followed by patent US11,380,833. I received two granted fusion patents in 2018 and 2021. My fusion patents US10,937,940 and US10,096,761 are the basis of my current work with several more fusion patent applications to be filed soon.”

“In 2018 when patent US10,096,761 was granted, I sent it out to a few University Engineering departments for their review and comments,” says Bellezza, “unfortunately, I received no direct response. I was hoping for positive response from the University, but received none.”

Nonetheless, Bellezza believes that the  process “will bring 2D Graphene into the main stream of integrated circuits for generations to come.”

Bellezza process could replace copper with graphene in ICs | Electronics Weekly

Next, the world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.

World Debt Clocks (usdebtclock.org)

“They had stumbled either upon a serious flaw in modern financial markets or into a great gambling run. Characteristically, they were not sure which it was. As Charlie pointed out, “It’s really hard to know when you’re lucky and when you’re smart.”

Michael Lewis, The Big Short: Inside the Doomsday Machine